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Imagine an industry that barely exists today, but in 10 years could be worth more than Saudi Arabia's entire economy. That's robotaxis.
Archive edition · Market data and company circumstances reflect 9 May 2026, when this newsletter was sent.
Imagine an industry that barely exists today, but in 10 years could be worth more than Saudi Arabia's entire economy. That's robotaxis.
Goldman Sachs just dropped a forecast that should grab every investor's attention: The global Robotaxi market is heading to $415 billion by 2035. To put that in perspective, there are roughly 7,000 self-driving taxis on the road today. By 2035? Try 6 million. That is not growth, that is an explosion.
And it is not just taxis. The entire autonomous vehicle ecosystem (cars, trucks, software, services) could hit a $2 trillion by 2035.
Companies that build and operate their own robotaxi fleets could enjoy gross margins of 30-50%. For comparison, that's better than most software companies.
Why? Because the cost of running a robotaxi is plummeting fast:
By 2035, running a robotaxi could cost less than $1 per mile. Cumulative profits across the industry over the next decade? $440 billion.
Everyone's obsessed with Tesla's robotaxi dream. But the smart money is quietly piling into something else: Autonomous Trucks.
Here's why it's actually the better near-term bet:
The math is brutal for traditional trucking. AV truck costs are crashing from $8.56/mile today to $2.03 by 2035, while human-driven trucks are getting more expensive due to rising wages.
There's another goldmine hiding here: Software Subscriptions. The "Netflix for your car" market, where you pay monthly for self-driving features, could be worth $300 billion by 2035.
You don't need to bet on a single winner. Here's how to play this across the value chain:
The Picks-and-Shovels Plays
Here's what could derail the trillion-dollar dream:
How to Play It Smart: Don't put everything on one stock. Spread your bets across (1) fleet operators, (2) software/AI providers, (3) trucking pure-plays, and (4) sensor/chip suppliers. Think of it like investing in the entire gold rush not just betting on one prospector.
This article preserves the analysis in our weekly newsletter sent 9 May 2026. Market prices, forecasts and company circumstances reflect the time of publication and may have changed.
This material is general information, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Investing and trading involve risk, including loss of capital.